Sign in / Join NowSummaryWhile favorable DRAM and NAND supply demand dynamics have resulted in robust earnings and stock prices for memory manufacturers, several events are bringing about a significant change.Increased capacity, lowered prices, and new Chinese memory fabs are and will continue to stem the tide of memory price increases that grew 76% in 2017.There a direct correlation between selling prices of memory chips and stock prices of memory companies.Back on November 26, 2017, Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim cut memory leader Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) to Equal Weight from Overweight and trimmed its price target by 3.4%. According to the report:"We see downside risk as NAND prices have started to reverse in 4Q17. Meanwhile, visibility on DRAM supply demand dynamics has reduced beyond 1Q18."Morgan Stanley cautioned that the memory chip sector's so called "super cycle" is close to peaking.Coincidently, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty cut her rating on Western Digital (WDC) to equal weight from overweight based on an expectation that prices of NAND flash memory chips are peaking and could fall as much as 15%, starting in the first quarter.iphone 7 plus case Fast forward to 2018 and I see three warning signs that this super cycle is ending.First, the percentage changes of average selling prices (ASPs) of NAND and DRAM have been dropping and are forecast to continue to drop.
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